Track & trace

Mr D · Oct 21, 2020

Lucky8 said:
Step 1: 1 person says she was with 30 people.
Step 2: 30 people say they weren't near her.
Step 3: 1 person admits she was muddled and tells T&T she got it all wrong.
Step 4: 30 people tell T&T they weren't near her.
Step 5: T&T ignore Steps 2-4, rigidly stays at Step 1 and tells 30 people who were nowhere near a Covid case to isolate at home for 14 days immediately.

Bonkers.

30 people told one single caller that they were not near her?
And that is something the caller has not heard before?

People often go with their instructions. It's a rare individual that goes off empirical data rather than procedures. Sometimes they get sacked. Occasionally they save the world.

Now if you were in charge at t & t I am sure they would work differently. Would they be as effective? Probably not.

The employer needs to be able to deal with lots of people off at once. This time 30 people were not near the person. Another time 30 people will be.
Or perhaps more than 30.

Organisations all over have had to deal with large numbers of staff having to isolate or off sick at one time. They plan for it and deal with it.
Lose a couple of hundred staff one Monday for a couple of weeks and you cope best you can with whatever can be dredged up. Or shut and lose business.
So far places appear mostly to be staying open if they can.

Justin Smith · Oct 23, 2020

Mr D said:
Killing off part of the population when you cannot figure out in advance who will die, who will have organ damage as a result, who will get long covid and who will not get any negative aspects at all.
Thats kinda unethical.

Least with a working vaccine you can reduce the numbers that have negative aspects.
Plus maybe we don't swamp the NHS and they can carry on doing other work. Like cancer treatment, pacemaker replacement, bypass surgery etc.

Really Mr D, you should not be spouting such rubbish, you risk somebody reading it and actually believing it....

As for "Long Covid", the latest attempt to scare us all, only about 1 in 50 are still suffering symptoms (however mild) after 90 days,,,,,

I still cannot get my head round that stat I read the other day that the average age of someone dying with Covid (and an unknown number did not actually die of Covid anyway) was actually 1 year older than those dying of all causes..... It's 82.4 v 81.2 ! Add in the fact that the death rate per infection is less than 1 in 200, could someone please tell me why we're changing the whole of society and shagging the economy for such a virus ?

Lucky8 · Oct 23, 2020

Justin Smith said:
could someone please tell me why we're changing the whole of society and shagging the economy for such a virus ?

I actually think they feel they can't turn back. If you look at just how many contracts KPMG, Boston Consulting Group, McKinsey and Serco (the usual suspects) have won from Covid, just how many billions they have earned from this, their contracts need paying. Where would all the money come from? We are now crippled with debt, only the emergency measures mean the govt has access to even more money.

If they declared the pandemic over and we returned to saving people's lives whose operations and treatments have been cancelled, or the people who haven't received anything from Rishi and are on their knees in desperation, the money tree would dry up.

Boris doesn't have a clue what he's doing, but he can't do a U-turn and admit it's all a farce. He's just keeping the illusion up until he has to stand down through ill health/mental breakdown, he's pushed out, and someone else will open the books...

Mr D · Oct 23, 2020

Justin Smith said:
Really Mr D, you should not be spouting such rubbish, you risk somebody reading it and actually believing it....

As for "Long Covid", the latest attempt to scare us all, only about 1 in 50 are still suffering symptoms (however mild) after 90 days,,,,,

I still cannot get my head round that stat I read the other day that the average age of someone dying with Covid (and an unknown number did not actually die of Covid anyway) was actually 1 year older than those dying of all causes..... It's 82.4 v 81.2 ! Add in the fact that the death rate per infection is less than 1 in 200, could someone please tell me why we're changing the whole of society and shagging the economy for such a virus ?

You and I both know that some people will die from covid.
You cannot predict who will die. Spread it around to achieve some goal and you will kill some random people.
You see this earlier? Woman with the virus over 7 months ago doesn't have antibodies now. Perhaps that woman knows a little about the virus, what with her background and her being ill.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/nadine-dorries-says-she-no-170112935.html

You may not mind Long Covid. Those with a more active life, more active social life will mind considerably. Again you cannot predict who will get it.
Figures of say 20,000 people infected in a day - 1 in 50 figure you use is 400 people. In a day.
If the actual figures are say 4 times bigger - then looking at 1600 people.
Thats a lot of people to have organ damage or ongoing health issues affecting their ability to function.
Kill off their love life? Kill off their social life? Kill off them working? Possibly to any of those.
And how long to recover? No one knows yet. If they can recover.

Organ damage is permanent. A few percent damage to your heart and you may well end up dealing with a cardiologist. Perhaps avoid a heart attack, perhaps next heart attack will be the last. Damage is cumulative - what happens next time getting a virus? More heart damage?

Or how about lungs?

Liver at least you usually regrow. Others its permanent damage.

As you say there's only minor difference in death number. And we know its heavily towards the old - people don't live forever in most places.
So which old people, which young people, which previously healthy people do you want to make disabled or kill off?

Mr D · Oct 23, 2020

Lucky8 said:
I actually think they feel they can't turn back. If you look at just how many contracts KPMG, Boston Consulting Group, McKinsey and Serco (the usual suspects) have won from Covid, just how many billions they have earned from this, their contracts need paying. Where would all the money come from? We are now crippled with debt, only the emergency measures mean the govt has access to even more money.

If they declared the pandemic over and we returned to saving people's lives whose operations and treatments have been cancelled, or the people who haven't received anything from Rishi and are on their knees in desperation, the money tree would dry up.

Boris doesn't have a clue what he's doing, but he can't do a U-turn and admit it's all a farce. He's just keeping the illusion up until he has to stand down through ill health/mental breakdown, he's pushed out, and someone else will open the books...

Unless its not a farce.

What price keeping the NHS open?

Lucky8 · Oct 23, 2020

Mr D said:
What price keeping the NHS open?

Sorry, what do you mean?

simon field · Oct 23, 2020

Mr D said:
You and I both know that some people will die from covid.
You cannot predict who will die. Spread it around to achieve some goal and you will kill some random people.
You see this earlier? Woman with the virus over 7 months ago doesn't have antibodies now. Perhaps that woman knows a little about the virus, what with her background and her being ill.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/nadine-dorries-says-she-no-170112935.html

You may not mind Long Covid. Those with a more active life, more active social life will mind considerably. Again you cannot predict who will get it.
Figures of say 20,000 people infected in a day - 1 in 50 figure you use is 400 people. In a day.
If the actual figures are say 4 times bigger - then looking at 1600 people.
Thats a lot of people to have organ damage or ongoing health issues affecting their ability to function.
Kill off their love life? Kill off their social life? Kill off them working? Possibly to any of those.
And how long to recover? No one knows yet. If they can recover.

Organ damage is permanent. A few percent damage to your heart and you may well end up dealing with a cardiologist. Perhaps avoid a heart attack, perhaps next heart attack will be the last. Damage is cumulative - what happens next time getting a virus? More heart damage?

Or how about lungs?

Liver at least you usually regrow. Others its permanent damage.

As you say there's only minor difference in death number. And we know its heavily towards the old - people don't live forever in most places.
So which old people, which young people, which previously healthy people do you want to make disabled or kill off?

Why not ban driving? Save some lives.

Or smoking. Drinking. Eating fat & sugar. Skiing. Motorbikes. Roads.

Trees sometimes fall over. They can kill! Ban the buggers eh.

simon field · Oct 23, 2020

Mr D said:
Unless its not a farce.

What price keeping the NHS open?

Whatbon earth are you on about, can’t you honestly see it’s a farce?

Jesus Christ there’s no helping some people

Interestedobserver · Oct 23, 2020

simon field said:
Why not ban driving? Save some lives.

Or smoking. Drinking. Eating fat & sugar. Skiing. Motorbikes. Roads.

Trees sometimes fall over. They can kill! Ban the buggers eh.

Not aware of any of the above that can take up all the NHS beds and more during the winter?

In fact they would struggle to fill a ward in each town or city between them

Correct me if I'm wrong though

simon field · Oct 23, 2020

Interestedobserver said:
Not aware of any of the above that can take up all the NHS beds and more during the winter?

In fact they would struggle to fill a ward in each town or city between them

Correct me if I'm wrong though

Ah but add them all together, all those ‘significant minorities’ and they do make a big difference.

Childbirth, tonsils out, cancer, obesity.

All put pressure on our lovely nhs

Mr D · Oct 23, 2020

simon field said:
Why not ban driving? Save some lives.

Or smoking. Drinking. Eating fat & sugar. Skiing. Motorbikes. Roads.

Trees sometimes fall over. They can kill! Ban the buggers eh.

We do ban some of the more dangerous drivers from driving. The government even require someone to take a driving test. If that is the driver then even better.

We do not ban people eating. Though some would love it if they could ban you from enjoying yourself with food. No meat. No processed food. No fertilizer. No insecticide. Not enough food but that does not bother them.

Lots of things are bad for you. Most do not risk overloading the NHS in one go.
Most do not kill thousands of people just weeks or months after coming across it.

Mr D · Oct 23, 2020

simon field said:
Whatbon earth are you on about, can’t you honestly see it’s a farce?

Jesus Christ there’s no helping some people

I am guessing you have not yet had anyone you know die from it.
If it kills you is it still a farce? If it merely cripples you is it still a farce?

Hey try emigration, surely some country around where you can live your life as you want without government healthcare interfering in your life.

Mr D · Oct 23, 2020

Lucky8 said:
Sorry, what do you mean?

If you need an NHS bed but your local hospital cannot admit you because of lack of beds - what with being full already - how far should you go before getting treatment? Send people from Liverpool to London perhaps? Or how about lossiemouth?

Interestedobserver · Oct 24, 2020

Mr D said:
If you need an NHS bed but your local hospital cannot admit you because of lack of beds - what with being full already - how far should you go before getting treatment? Send people from Liverpool to London perhaps? Or how about lossiemouth?

Holland has had to start sending Covid patients to German hospitals as theirs are overloaded already

(I'm assuming that's not because of a spate of car/motorcycle crashes or ski-ing accidents?)

Nico Albrecht · Oct 24, 2020

Wow they send one, a single patient to Germany. Looks like the Netherlands are on their last leg. Total collapse of their medical system shortly. Or they simple realised it would be more cost effective to treat some cases in a German hospital. Gotta love the Germans for taking it serious and preparing for 6 month.At the same time, the country has more than 8,100 intensive care beds free at the moment, with about 21,500 occupied not many are actually covid 19 according to the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine. There’s also a reserve of around 12,700 beds that can be activated within seven days if necessary.

Newchodge · Oct 25, 2020

They are now talking about reducing the time spent in quarantine, after contact with someone who tested positive, from 14 days to a0 or 7 days. Nothing whatsoever to do with the science about when people are infectous, of course. It's because research suggests that fewer than 20% of peole are quarantining anyway.

Alyson Dyer · Oct 25, 2020

The worrying thing is if t&t are given the name of someone who the Covid-19 positive person has some sort of grudge against and is a vindictive person. For example an ex partner, employer, neighbour.

Mr D · Oct 25, 2020

Newchodge said:
They are now talking about reducing the time spent in quarantine, after contact with someone who tested positive, from 14 days to a0 or 7 days. Nothing whatsoever to do with the science about when people are infectous, of course. It's because research suggests that fewer than 20% of peole are quarantining anyway.

Lack of quarantine has knock on effect on infections, NHS and government reaction.
Next lockdown for England so much nearer....

Interestedobserver · Oct 26, 2020

Mr D said:
Lack of quarantine has knock on effect on infections, NHS and government reaction.
Next lockdown for England so much nearer....

Yep

Because the lesser lockdowns and track and trace aren't being adhered to and/or aren't working then we will just all end up with the full lockdown circuit breakers periodically

Wales already saying they will need more circuit breakers than the current one in the future

Lucky8 · Oct 26, 2020

Alyson Dyer said:
The worrying thing is if t&t are given the name of someone who the Covid-19 positive person has some sort of grudge against and is a vindictive person.

Or panicked, got totally muddled, and gave the names of 30 people that they weren't in contact with, as in the example I gave!

If T&T is totally voluntary so only some people sign up, has no verification process whatsoever, has no ability to undo misreports reports like the above or malicious reports - isn't it 100% unreliable and useless?

Mr D · Oct 26, 2020

Lucky8 said:
Or panicked, got totally muddled, and gave the names of 30 people that they weren't in contact with, as in the example I gave!

If T&T is totally voluntary so only some people sign up, has no verification process whatsoever, has no ability to undo misreports reports like the above or malicious reports - isn't it 100% unreliable and useless?

They are not useless. But would help if they could get in touch with more people and more acted upon the information.

Without someone doing t & t the numbers would be higher. And we may as well shut UK till summer.

simon field · Oct 26, 2020

At last, someone has articulated it properly!

It’s about a 15 minute read, enjoy...

https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/

Interestedobserver · Oct 27, 2020

simon field said:
At last, someone has articulated it properly!

It’s about a 15 minute read, enjoy...

https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/

Talking about T Cells. Saying pretty much the same as Karol Sikora

Who I will remind you promised we would all be immune before the summer! To the delight of his"followers"

And then had to admit he was wrong.

The link you post reckons Covid will be gone in another couple of months. It's nothing but wishful thinking. Sadly

And very similar to Sikora's failed prediction:

Britain could be out of lockdown and "virtually back to normal" by August, according to a former World Health Organisation expert.

Professor Karol Sikora, who was director of the body's cancer programme from 1997 until 1999, has been a regular commentator on the coronavirus pandemic on Twitter.

He tweeted on Wednesday: "Some laughed at my prediction at the end of March that we would start edging back to normality around the second week in May - it was right!

"I think by August things will be virtually back to normal, perhaps sooner. We should still prepare for the worst, but hope for the best!"

Justin Smith · Mar 17, 2021

I have a decision to make about staffing with regards to "Track and Trace".
I have two part time staff plus myself, the part timers work the equivalent of about half a week each. In order to avoid us all potentially getting caught on T&T (and potentially having to shut down the business) for the last few months one member of staff has been working on his own one day a week one week and almost full time the next. The idea being if one of us gets caught on T&T they cannot then require us all to self isolate because at least one of my staff would not have been working with the other two for that week.
However, my staff are getting a bit p1ssed off with it now and are asking me when they can go back to working a more consistent number of hours each week.
Both have been vaccinated and I will be so in just over a week, but, AFAIK, that cuts no ice with the T&T Gestapo. Is that correct ?
So, what am I suppressed to say to them ?
How long before we can go back to working normally but without running the risk of having to shut the business for up to 2 weeks ?
Has anyone any ideas ?

simon field · Mar 17, 2021

Can you get them to leave their phones at home?

Interestedobserver · Mar 17, 2021

simon field said:
At last, someone has articulated it properly!

It’s about a 15 minute read, enjoy...

https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/

Wow - whoever brought this thread back from the dead led me to open this link

Can't believe this so called expert wrote so much BS - last year. According to him Sage got everything entirely wrong, there wasnt going to be a second wave and we wouldn't need any vaccines to beat Covid as most of us were already immune after the first wave etc etc

The usual BS we've been fed from day one

Simon - I assume this so called expert must have apologised to the Sage scientists many times since he wrote this garbage?

I would like to take credit for calling it BS back in October last year and not with hindsight.

With hindsight this guy was clearly talking total bollox

Simon please tell me you've seen the light and no longer follow him on social media?

It's funny how people can make themselves sound like experts like that when in fact they are talking out of their arse isn't it?

I can understand you wanting to believe him? Would have been nice if he was correct.

Anyway.........

Mr D · Mar 17, 2021

Justin Smith said:
I have a decision to make about staffing with regards to "Track and Trace".
I have two part time staff plus myself, the part timers work the equivalent of about half a week each. In order to avoid us all potentially getting caught on T&T (and potentially having to shut down the business) for the last few months one member of staff has been working on his own one day a week one week and almost full time the next. The idea being if one of us gets caught on T&T they cannot then require us all to self isolate because at least one of my staff would not have been working with the other two for that week.
However, my staff are getting a bit p1ssed off with it now and are asking me when they can go back to working a more consistent number of hours each week.
Both have been vaccinated and I will be so in just over a week, but, AFAIK, that cuts no ice with the T&T Gestapo. Is that correct ?
So, what am I suppressed to say to them ?
How long before we can go back to working normally but without running the risk of having to shut the business for up to 2 weeks ?
Has anyone any ideas ?

April. 2022.

Perhaps a little earlier. Could be later.

Ever thought of simply working differently?

Interestedobserver · Mar 17, 2021

95 per cent of your income is online

Can you justify keeping the shop going?

Interestedobserver · Mar 17, 2021

Interestedobserver said:
Wow - whoever brought this thread back from the dead led me to open this link

Can't believe this so called expert wrote so much BS - last year. According to him Sage got everything entirely wrong, there wasnt going to be a second wave and we wouldn't need any vaccines to beat Covid as most of us were already immune after the first wave etc etc

The usual BS we've been fed from day one

Simon - I assume this so called expert must have apologised to the Sage scientists many times since he wrote this garbage?

I would like to take credit for calling it BS back in October last year and not with hindsight.

With hindsight this guy was clearly talking total bollox

Simon please tell me you've seen the light and no longer follow him on social media?

It's funny how people can make themselves sound like experts like that when in fact they are talking out of their arse isn't it?

I can understand you wanting to believe him? Would have been nice if he was correct.

Anyway.........

He spoke with such certainty and authority as well. Was so dismissive of Sage experts and had even more and prettier graphs than Justin to back up his BS?

All that glitters isn't gold as they say

Do critical of Sage and suggesting any work on creating vaccines was a total waste of time and resource as we were already all immune by October!

Thank the Lord we trusted Sage rather than crackpots like this guy!

Imagine where we would be if we had took any notice of him now?

Justin Smith · Mar 17, 2021

Interestedobserver said:
Wow - whoever brought this thread back from the dead led me to open this link

Can't believe this so called expert wrote so much BS - last year. According to him Sage got everything entirely wrong, there wasnt going to be a second wave and we wouldn't need any vaccines to beat Covid as most of us were already immune after the first wave etc etc

The usual BS we've been fed from day one

Simon - I assume this so called expert must have apologised to the Sage scientists many times since he wrote this garbage?

I would like to take credit for calling it BS back in October last year and not with hindsight.

With hindsight this guy was clearly talking total bollox

Simon please tell me you've seen the light and no longer follow him on social media?

It's funny how people can make themselves sound like experts like that when in fact they are talking out of their arse isn't it?

I can understand you wanting to believe him? Would have been nice if he was correct.

Anyway.........

I did think of phoning your mate Neil "half a million deaths" Ferguson, but I didn't think he'd appreciate my call.
I'd have hoped you were going to write something useful as I am actually in a slightly awkward position with my staff.

MikeJ · Mar 17, 2021

Justin Smith said:
I have a decision to make about staffing with regards to "Track and Trace".
I have two part time staff plus myself, the part timers work the equivalent of about half a week each. In order to avoid us all potentially getting caught on T&T (and potentially having to shut down the business) for the last few months one member of staff has been working on his own one day a week one week and almost full time the next. The idea being if one of us gets caught on T&T they cannot then require us all to self isolate because at least one of my staff would not have been working with the other two for that week.
However, my staff are getting a bit p1ssed off with it now and are asking me when they can go back to working a more consistent number of hours each week.
Both have been vaccinated and I will be so in just over a week, but, AFAIK, that cuts no ice with the T&T Gestapo. Is that correct ?
So, what am I suppressed to say to them ?
How long before we can go back to working normally but without running the risk of having to shut the business for up to 2 weeks ?
Has anyone any ideas ?

If you've been vaccinated, you're very unlikely to test positive. The only risk is if one of you has been close to someone that tests positive, then they may have to isolate. You'll not need to shut the shop.

MikeJ · Mar 17, 2021

Justin Smith said:
I did think of phoning your mate Neil "half a million deaths" Ferguson, but I didn't think he'd appreciate my call.
I'd have hoped you were going to write something useful as I am actually in a slightly awkward position with my staff.

Neil "half a million deaths if we do nothing" Ferguson, to give him his full name.

Justin Smith · Mar 17, 2021

simon field said:
Can you get them to leave their phones at home?

As I understand it, if one of my staff catches Covid and is caught on T&T, then both I and the other member of staff would have to self isolate. All three of us off = business shut.
As an aside they, and I, are aware of the effects, so would obviously be put off getting tested. There is no way I'd get tested.

MikeJ · Mar 17, 2021

No, that's not correct. If they're picked up on T&T, they have to isolate, not you.

If they test positive, then you'd have to isolate.

Justin Smith · Mar 17, 2021

Mr D said:
April. 2022.
Perhaps a little earlier. Could be later.
Ever thought of simply working differently?

Like how exactly ?
We could all work on our own all day, but we wouldn't enjoy working like that, and my staff would earn less as by definition there would only be 40 hours in total of work available.

MikeJ · Mar 17, 2021

Justin Smith said:
There is no way I'd get tested.

That's frankly moronic.

Justin Smith · Mar 17, 2021

MikeJ said:
No, that's not correct. If they're picked up on T&T, they have to isolate, not you.
If they test positive, then you'd have to isolate.

Quite, if one of us tested positive all of us would have to self isolate.

Justin Smith · Mar 17, 2021

MikeJ said:
That's frankly moronic.

If you possibly had to shut your business you may think differently.....

MikeJ · Mar 17, 2021

I'd structure the business to make sure that wasn't possible, which you appear to have done.

I'd certainly not avoid getting tested, thinking that's going to help anything.

Interestedobserver · Mar 17, 2021

Justin Smith said:
As I understand it, if one of my staff catches Covid and is caught on T&T, then both I and the other member of staff would have to self isolate. All three of us off = business shut.
As an aside they, and I, are aware of the effects, so would obviously be put off getting tested. There is no way I'd get tested.

You will probably make more profit the week you don't open the shop?

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